The Novel Political Party Configuration

For the symposium on Sanford Levinson together with Jack M. Balkin, Democracy together with Dysfunction (University of Chicago Press, 2019).

In my concluding 2 posts, I explained why nosotros are probable to encounter a novel constitutional regime amongst the Democrats as the dominant party. I argued that asymmetric polarization together with demographic trends accept made it hard for the Republican Party to reproduce itself inward the adjacent generation of voters.

To empathize what the politics of the adjacent several decades volition await like, it is of import to recognize how the deadening changes inward the composition of the 2 major parties accept reshaped (1) their demographics, (2) the issues on which they human face upwards off against each other, together with (3) the issues that internally separate them.  The 2 parties today are really unlike from the ones that existed at the unopen of the New Deal/Civil Rights regime inward the tardily 1970s.

To explicate the novel political party configuration, I volition depict on a 2016 article yesteryear Julia Azari together with Marc Hetherington. They indicate out that the electoral maps of recent elections await much similar the electoral map inward 1896, but amongst the parties reversed. In a couplet of articles published inward 2003 together with 2008, Gary Miller together with Norman Schofield accept too emphasized the analogy to 1896, together with they accept offered a theory of why the political party coalitions accept evolved inward the means they did. The tidings that follows builds on all of these scholars' work.

In 1896 the parties were opposed on issues of social identity (race existence the most important) together with internally divided on questions of marking together with economical inequality. Ever since Reconstruction, the Democratic together with Republican parties had fought almost issues produced yesteryear the Civil War, spell suppressing growing differences inside each political party over how to bargain amongst rapid economic, social, together with technological change, together with the economical inequality that resulted.  Following the 1896 election, these internal fissures became increasingly pronounced, together with the parties slow began to evolve, amongst many immigrants together with urban workers joining rural voters inward the Democratic Party. This created the possibility of a novel coalition organized but about the rule of line of piece of occupation concern together with the protection of labor. By FDR's election inward 1932, the parties immediately faced off on issues of marking together with economical inequality, spell both parties were internally divided on social issues, and—especially for the Democrats—race. Republicans—the political party of Lincoln—were soundless considered the to a greater extent than egalitarian political party on racial issues for some time. Democrats, yesteryear contrast, had to continually create out the tension betwixt their Southern wing, which was committed to Jim Crow together with White Supremacy, together with their Northern liberal wing, which was friendlier to dark civil rights.

This procedure of political party development continued throughout the New Deal/Civil Rights Regime. The presidential fly of the Democratic Party favored racial liberalism. Eventually this alienated many Southern whites, as good as many working marking white ethnics inward the North together with West, the so-called Nixon Democrats together with Reagan Democrats. Republicans gladly welcomed these disaffected Democrats into the party. Republican politicians eventually realized that they could simultaneously expand their coalition together with destroy the New Deal coalition yesteryear emphasizing race together with civilisation state of war issues that appealed to white working marking voters.

During the Reagan regime, the political party successfully neutered organized labor, which had been a cardinal Democratic constituency. Perhaps as important, the Republican Party adopted a strategy of political polarization to gain bulk status. Republican politicians successfully used cultural together with racial wedge issues to plough the South Republican together with to cater to evangelical Christians together with other working marking whites.

But this strategy of cultural polarization had unintended consequences. Many college-educated Republican voters, including Northeastern moderates, suburbanites, together with professionals, became increasingly disaffected together with became Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Meanwhile, national Democratic Party leaders, including Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, together with Hillary Clinton, actively sought back upwards from businesses together with professionals, specially inward the fiscal together with technology scientific discipline sectors. This reshuffling of allegiances slow transformed the Democratic coalition. The Democrats regained their competitiveness nationally, but the New Deal coalition was non coming back.

The Republican strategy of political polarization together with civilisation war, together with the Democrats’ appeal to socially liberal college graduates together with professionals, eventually changed the composition of both parties. Before the Reagan regime began, each political party was organized but about number of marking together with economical power. Today, at the unopen of the Reagan regime, each political party is organized but about issues of identity together with status.  Republicans accept long defendant Democrats of engaging inward identity politics—that is, catering to the interests of women, homosexuals, together with minorities. But the contemporary Republican Party is no less organized but about identity—in this case, white together with Christian identity.   Under the Tea Party together with Donald Trump, political party activists accept perfected the party’s politics of rage together with grievance—the Republican version of identity politics.

By the offset of the twenty-first century, the parties are in ane lawsuit once to a greater extent than opposed to each other on issues of identity (race, ethnicity, religion, social liberalism) together with internally divided on issues of marking together with economical inequality.  This continuous rotation of positions has produced the contrary of the 1896 election that Azari, Hetherington, Miller, together with Schofield noted.

As before, the organisation is non perfectly symmetrical. The Democrats—the Party of FDR— hold to favor egalitarian economical together with social policies. The Democratic "brand" is economically liberal, together with the Republican "brand" is economically conservative. But the presidential fly of the Democratic party—Obama together with the Clintons—welcomed socially liberal college-educated professionals together with neo-liberals into their party. They sought contributions from wealthy corporate donors.

Meanwhile, organized labor, debilitated inward the Reagan regime, became a less powerful element inward Democratic politics than it had been inward the heyday of the New Deal coalition. Ironically, Republicans helped transform the Democratic Party yesteryear doing everything inward their ability to destroy together with defund unions, leading Democrats to await elsewhere for novel voters. Democrats became increasingly a coalition of educated cosmopolitans, women, minorities, together with white working marking voters who soundless remained inward the party. The influx of novel voters led the Democrats to a pro-immigration stance.  Meanwhile, the Republicans accept buy the farm a coalition of corporate together with line of piece of occupation concern interests, evangelical Christians, together with socially conservative working marking whites. Their novel voters accept led the Republican party, which was in ane lawsuit quite pro-immigration, to buy the farm increasingly hostile to immigration.

Although the parties are immediately squared off on issues of civilisation together with identity, both parties are probable to witness internal fights over economical judge together with marking issues. The facial expression of these conflicts almost economical justice, however, volition live on unlike inward both parties.

First, marking conflicts volition play out differently inward each political party because each political party has unlike ideas almost identity together with race.  As nosotros saw amongst Obamacare together with its Medicaid expansion, Republicans volition notice it hard to back upwards economically egalitarian reforms that larn coded as benefiting racial minorities. Instead, Republican reformers volition live on drawn to economical reforms that they tin successfully label as “family-friendly” together with cannot live on racialized yesteryear reform opponents.

Second, conflicts over marking volition play out differently inward each political party because the 2 parties’ “brands” are different.  The Democrats are far to a greater extent than egalitarian on multiple dimensions together with to a greater extent than oft than non back upwards increasing national power, spell the Republican "brand" remains economically conservative, small-government together with orientated toward states.

This novel political party configuration is of import for 2 reasons. First, it limits the variety together with marking of transformative modify that is possible inward the close future. Second, it creates the seeds of depolarization. I’ll beak over these issues inward my adjacent 2 installments.

Posts inward this series:

1. Escaping Dysfunction
2. Cycle of Presidents or Cycle of Regimes?
3. How Polarization Leads to Disjunction-- There Must live on Fifty Ways to Leave Your Party
4. The New Party Configuration
5. The Limits of a Cosmopolitan Party
6. How Constitutional Rot Ends